A new prediction for Virginia’s elections predicts that Democrats will likely win control of both chambers in the legislature on February 2nd. advocates believe this could be the result that opens the door to lawmakers legalizing retail cannabis sales. In a separate poll, however, 58 percent of likely voters supported allowing marijuana sales.
Although marijuana legalization is not on the Virginia ballot this week in terms of a ballot measure, supporters expect that the results of Virginia’s statewide elections will shape the future marijuana policy of the state. Some believe that a Democratic majority in both chambers could lead to regulated cannabis sales for adults. However, a GOP victory would allow Republicans to repeal Virginia’s current limited legalization.
Virginia legalized the use, possession, and limited personal cultivation by adults in 2021. Commercial sales, however, are still illegal and not regulated. The Republican majority in the House of Delegates has stood in the way of legislation to allow retail sales, most recently voting down a bill passed in February by the Democratic-controlled Senate from Sen. Adam Ebbin (D).
New projections by the firm CNalysis indicate that Democrats have a slight advantage in both chambers of Virginia’s state legislature. According to the firm, there is a 71% chance that Democrats will retain control of the Senate in Virginia and a 61% chance they’ll capture the House. Republicans had a 29 percent and a 31 percent probability, respectively. CNalysis stated that there is an 8 percent possibility of a tie.
Ebbin said in an interview with Marijuana Moment last month that “we’re not going make progress on marijuana without a Democratic majority in the Virginia General Assembly.” “Republicans have consistently stymied efforts to move ahead on regulation and the sale of a legal, tested product,” Ebbin told Marijuana Moment in an interview last month.
FINAL VA FORECAST
Each chamber in our final VA 2023 legislative forecast is “Lean Democratic” at @CNalysis.
State Senate
71% DEM Majority
29% Majority GOPHouse of Delegates
61% DEM Majority
31% of GOP Majority
8% TIEhttps://t.co/fx1VAm8fWB1/4 pic.twitter.com/ODLW0RvKFc
Chaz Nuttycombe 6 November 2023
In the meantime, a new poll of Virginia’s likely voters shows that they are in favor of legal sales. A poll conducted by Christopher Newport University from September 28 to October 11 found that 58 per cent of the 800 respondents favored allowing commercial sales.
This includes almost 3 out of 4 Democrats (76%) and 59 % of Independents. Only 38 percent said that they were in favor of the change.
The survey also found that younger voters are more likely to support legal sales. Voters aged 18-44 showed 69 percent of their support, compared with 54 percent for voters aged 45 and older.
Even if Democrats win both chambers of Congress, they will still be up against potential opposition by Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, is scheduled to serve until the end of 2025.
Youngkin is wary about allowing legal sales. In June, a member from his administration stated that the governor has “stated that he’s not interested in further steps towards legalizing adult recreational marijuana use.”
Ebbin stated last month that Youngkin has been “a challenge to deal because he isn’t forthcoming with what he is willing to support.”
Advocates hope that wide support for marijuana legalization by Virginia voters will dissuade Governor McDonnell from vetoing a reform bill passed by the legislature or returning it to legislators with major amendments.
Some legalization supporters worry that if Republicans capture both chambers the result could be an end to legalization. Virginia may become the first modern state to reverse legalization with a GOP-controlled legislative body and Youngkin as governor.
Ebbin stated last month that “that is a valid concern.” “We will have many important issues on the November ballot, including the progress made in cannabis, the right of women to choose, LGBT issues, and the environment. Republicans have repeatedly shown a desire to go backwards.”
But not everyone expects the election tomorrow to have such an impact on cannabis policy.
Chelsea Higgs Wise, executive director of Marijuana Justice in Virginia, is a Black-led group that has led the charge to legalize cannabis with a focus on repairing the harms caused by drug war. She acknowledged that the upcoming election would have a major impact on cannabis policy. However, she also said the legislature could be reluctant to make sweeping changes due to the new districts, members, and committee compositions.
Wise stated last month that “We will have brand new people.” Just the culture of new legislators is that they are not willing to take on too much. Marijuana has a long history and it’s regarded as incredibly difficult. “There is no known champion within the Virginia legislature who is willing to take on this issue.”
She believes that Youngkin will be a deterrent to legalization efforts, even if Democrats hold both chambers. Wise stated that if there is no champion for legalization, the public doesn’t support it and the governor does not want it, the new legislators will not be thinking about marijuana.
She doubts that Republicans will try to ban personal possession and use. She said that even if Republicans were to gain a majority, she did not believe they would try to outlaw personal use and possession because they are new.
Wise believes that Republicans are willing to spend more money on training police officers and crackingdown on illegal pop up shops. She said that “they are definitely coming for legalization, but I don’t think it will be simple possession or homegrown.”
Virginia NORML, a cannabis advocacy group, conducted a cannabis candidate survey and published a cannabis voter guide in advance of the November 7th election to inform the electorate on the positions taken by incumbents and their challengers on cannabis policy reform.
In Virginia, a number of hemp businesses have recently been hit with fines in the five-figure range. This is part of a state effort to crackdown on hemp cannabinoid product.
has also been sued by two companies and a citizen over the new tightened rules for hemp products . These set the maximum THC concentration in hemp products to 0.3 percent and 2 milligrams each package. The threshold rendered hundreds products on store shelves illegal. A judge ruled against their claim late last month.
The GOP-controlled House killed another proposal earlier this year that would have allowed medical cannabis businesses to make certain state-level deductions. This vote was taken just days after Republicans defeated the legislation to allow adult-use cannabis sales, as well as legislation to create a psilocybin board and reschedule psychedelic.
Congress considers opposing amendments to protect legal marijuana states and block Biden from rescheduling cannabis
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